For data-dependent central banks, the next 12 days offer a smorgasbord of indicators. CPI, GDP, jobs numbers, inflation expectation surveys, you name it.
Investors have wagered ungodly sums on the inflation picture improving this summer. This next batch of data is crucial to them being right, and to the lid being kept on yields—and mortgage rates.
The marquee number for the BoC is CPI. It drops today, and the consensus calls for 3.4%. That would be down one whole percentage point from April.
If that's what we get, it may be largely attributable to #base effects#. To get a better read of the underlying trend, the BoC will focus on its favoured 3-month core measure instead.
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MLN will have full CPI coverage after its 8:30 a.m. release today.
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