The tariff wars aren't blowing up U.S. prices just yet, at least not based on April's official data. But wait for it, say economists.

Here were the numbers:

• CPI m/m: 0.2% (est. 0.3% | prior -0.1%)
• CPI y/y: 2.3% (est. 2.4% | prior 2.4%)
• Core CPI m/m: 0.2% (est. 0.3% | prior 0.1%)
• Core CPI y/y: 2.8% (est. 2.8% | prior 2.8%)

Here's what analysts said:

BMO came out last week saying 67% of Canadians are waiting for lower rates before buying a home. It's like a newbie poker player convinced they'll be dealt a royal flush if they wait just long enough.

But is this collective hesitation economic brilliance, or merely financial wishful thinking?

Apart from the facts that...

• market timing is a crapshoot
• rates could escalate in the meantime, and
• holdouts might find themselves in a bidding frenzy with fellow hesitators when sentiment shifts...

...there's another vital truth people are missing.

These days, there's nothing like a publicized trade deal to put a hop in the market's step.

The U.S. and China have agreed to a 90-day truce on most (not all) tariffs and non-tariff measures. This ceasefire was enough to reverse Friday's dip in our 5-year yield from Canada’s feeble jobs report.

Here's what else had yields twirling on Monday, and in which direction:

The bad news: Mortgage renewals in 2025-26 are set to deliver a financial sting, as outlined in the BoC's latest Financial Stability Report (FSR).

The good news: In most cases, it'll sting more like a red ant than a bullet ant. ← Click here to see a not-so-smart man challenge a bullet ant.

The FSR gave us six mortgage tidbits worth chewing on. Here they are:

Friday's news pushed and pulled Canadian bonds in two directions, but gravity won. Here's how the strings were being pulled:

After today's jobs numbers, the gloom train is about to leave the station. With tariffs rattling the labour market, economists are now elbowing each other for window seats on the Pessimism Express.

Here were the mostly dreary details:

• Job change: +7,400 (est. +2,500 | prior -32,600)
• Unemployment: 6.9% (est. 6.8% | prior 6.7%)
• Wages (permanent employees): +3.5% y/y (est. +3.3% | prior +3.5%)

What the BoC will focus on:

Apart from the Bank of Canada's Financial Stability Report—where Governor Macklem warns that trade uncertainty is the new national pastime—there were no other notable Canadian releases on Thursday.

Here's what else nudged yields, and in which direction:

The Donald won't be happy. As almost unanimously expected, the FOMC left its target rate at an average of 4.375%.

Canadian rates barely moved after today's 2:00 p.m. ET Fed decision.

The reason: Fed Chair Powell's messaging was as revelatory as reruns of "The National"; markets had seen this episode before.

Nonetheless, we did spot a few subtle but important twists in J-Pow's outlook today (more on that).

Here's what else was moving Canada's 5-year yield today, and in which direction:

Trump and Carney's much-anticipated first encounter is over. In a display of diplomatic restraint, the two leaders managed a meeting that was both productive and devoid of verbal fireworks, so that's a positive.

Here are some of the highlights, complete with mortgage implications:

Canada's bond traders began the day fidgeting like they’re waiting for a dentist appointment. Canadian markets were almost singularly focused on news out of the Trump-Carney summit.

The noon-time faceoff in Washington, D.C. started high-stakes negotiations that could take Canada's bond yields on a rollercoaster ride. Here's more on what happened.

This is what else was moving Canada's 5-year yield today, and which way the bond winds were blowing:

There's been quite a lull on the national rate leaderboard, but a pulse was detected on Monday. There were four moves among the rate leaders, the most in two weeks.

Among the notable changes: