Something doesn't feel right about this CPI fight. It's like central banks are trying to put out the inflation fire as someone pours gasoline on it.
On the one hand, Fed chief Powell said on Wednesday that rate cuts are likely sometime "this year." He celebrated America's "six months of good inflation data" and confirmed the U.S. policy rate is "likely at its peak."
On the other hand, real-time U.S. GDP estimates have suddenly surged to 4.2%, over double the rate that's historically conducive to disinflation. And that strength—as long as it holds—will also keep Canadian inflation higher than it would be, despite Tiff Macklem's attempts to downplay this threat.
Add that to Canada's hot core inflation readings and the fact that Canadian GDP has been pacing at 3%+ annualized growth over the last two months.
No doubt, more borrowers are starting to wonder if the market's June rate cut timing is ambitious.