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The Rental Investment Train Could Leave the Station By Spring. Should You Be On It?

For those with a few bucks and a dream, playing Monopoly with real-life rental properties could again become a pastime in 2024/25. To set that stage, let's start with six truths that bolster the case for rental investing: 1. Rents have soared double-digits to record highs — any higher and they'd need a space suit 2. Mortgage rates should test gravity further in 2024, with at least four BoC cuts now fully priced in 3. Lower rates stoke demand and appreciation; other things equal 4. 7-figure...

For those with a few bucks and a dream, playing Monopoly with real-life rental properties could again become a pastime in 2024/25.

To set that stage, let's start with six truths that bolster the case for rental investing:

  1. Rents have soared double-digits to record highs — any higher and they'd need a space suit
  2. Mortgage rates should test gravity further in 2024, with at least four BoC cuts now fully priced in
  3. Lower rates stoke demand and appreciation; other things equal
  4. 7-figure population growth also fuels our extreme housing demand
  5. Almost no reputable economists are projecting high unemployment
  6. Despite government incentives, it may be years before builders are willing and able to build fast enough.

Knowing the above, countless potential property investors wonder if they should take the plunge and buy before the crowd. They know what prices can do when rates dive in a tight real estate market. And they know that the best way to build wealth in a country where ¾ of us say we're overtaxed is to amass tax-efficient capital gains.

So with that, let's unwrap this mystery box of a question, and sprinkle in some investing best practices while we're at it.

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Employment Labyrinth: A U.S. Beat and Hot Wages Belie the Threat

In the last three months of 2023, the 4-year swap rate—a leading indicator of fixed mortgage pricing—plunged 125 bps. The descent trimmed down fixed rates by about 60 bps. For the average Joe/Josephine getting a new $300,000 mortgage, that means a cool $8,700 that they don't have to fork over in interest over the next five years. It's like finding a forgotten tax refund in your junk drawer. Now, a 125 bps drop is no small decline, but it's a somewhat typical move when the market thinks rates h...

In the last three months of 2023, the 4-year swap rate—a leading indicator of fixed mortgage pricing—plunged 125 bps. The descent trimmed down fixed rates by about 60 bps.

Source: Refinitiv Eikon

For the average Joe/Josephine getting a new $300,000 mortgage, that means a cool $8,700 that they don't have to fork over in interest over the next five years. It's like finding a forgotten tax refund in your junk drawer.

Now, a 125 bps drop is no small decline, but it's a somewhat typical move when the market thinks rates have peaked. In the short term, however, some say the drop in yields was excessive, and maybe we all overdid it with the confetti and rate cut talk.

Or did we?

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2024: Boom, Doom or Somewhere in Between? Mortgage Predictions From the Industry's "A-List"

In 2024, the pulse of the economy might as well be taken by checking the mortgage market's blood pressure. Mortgages are that critical to Canada's outlook. Millions of borrowers want to know what lies ahead, as do mortgage pros. But we didn't want to write some dry-as-sawdust mortgage prediction article. Luckily, when MLN needs answers, we know who to ask. In today's bulletin, these seven industry all-stars foretell what's on the mortgage horizon for 2024, sharing essential advice in the proce...

In 2024, the pulse of the economy might as well be taken by checking the mortgage market's blood pressure. Mortgages are that critical to Canada's outlook.

Millions of borrowers want to know what lies ahead, as do mortgage pros. But we didn't want to write some dry-as-sawdust mortgage prediction article. Luckily, when MLN needs answers, we know who to ask.

In today's bulletin, these seven industry all-stars foretell what's on the mortgage horizon for 2024, sharing essential advice in the process:

  • Collin Bruce, Lead Broker of the DLC Collin Bruce Team
  • Dan Eisner, CEO of True North Mortgage
  • Hash Aboulhosn, President & Co-Founder of Rocket Mortgage Canada
  • James Laird, Co-founder of Ratehub & Co-CEO of CanWise Financial
  • Jim Tourloukis, President of Verico Advent Mortgage Services
  • Ron Butler, Mortgage Broker at Butler Mortgage
  • Tracy Valko, Principal Broker, Valko Financial Ltd.

This isn't your run-of-the-mill crystal ball gazing. Each of these industry moguls dropped multiple truth bombs for the year ahead. Enjoy...
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Contrarian Corner: When Everyone Zigs, Is It Time to Hybrid?

Welcome to 2024, a year that promises to be easier on borrowers' wallets. Sometimes, though, promises from the financial world are like that buddy who swears they'll help you move and never shows up. That's why, even though the odds now favour floating-rate mortgages, it pays to account for unexpected twists. Excess fiscal stimulus, immigration, housing inflation and new supply shocks are just a few reasons why inflation could remain stubborn, keeping rates higher than expected (not a predicti...

Welcome to 2024, a year that promises to be easier on borrowers' wallets.

Sometimes, though, promises from the financial world are like that buddy who swears they'll help you move and never shows up.

That's why, even though the odds now favour floating-rate mortgages, it pays to account for unexpected twists. Excess fiscal stimulus, immigration, housing inflation and new supply shocks are just a few reasons why inflation could remain stubborn, keeping rates higher than expected (not a prediction).

Fortunately, there's a simple solution to hedge that risk economically: the hybrid mortgage. Think of it as the mullet of the mortgage market—business in the fixed front, party in the variable back.

You don't have access to this post on MortgageLogic.news at the moment, but if you upgrade your account you'll be able to see the whole thing, as well as all the other posts in the archive! Subscribing only takes a few seconds and will give you immediate access.

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Happy New Year!

If you're a mortgagor, here's to a year of lower rates and greater savings, so you can invest in your future and not in interest! If you're a mortgage professional, here's to a thriving mortgage market, thrilled clients and seamless transactions. And to everyone, most importantly, here's to a year of positivity, unlimited success, closeness with family and friends and doing whatever it takes for good health. You deserve nothing less!...

If you're a mortgagor, here's to a year of lower rates and greater savings, so you can invest in your future and not in interest!

If you're a mortgage professional, here's to a thriving mortgage market, thrilled clients and seamless transactions.

And to everyone, most importantly, here's to a year of positivity, unlimited success, closeness with family and friends and doing whatever it takes for good health. You deserve nothing less!

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