The in-house lenders of major U.S. homebuilders are buying down mortgage rates like they're in a frenzy. It's become their go-to strategy to move new homes.

For example, America's largest homebuilder, D.R. Horton, offers rates a whopping 150 bps below the market. Smaller homebuilders with less assets and liquidity are like a mom-and-pop shop trying to price match with Walmart—they can't compete.

U.S. mortgage brokers and regular lenders can't compete either.

This isn't happening nearly as much in Canada. Take Mattamy, for example, North America's largest privately owned homebuilder. Its Canadian website features no mortgage discounts. Neither do the websites for a sampling of other top Canadian homebuilders we checked.

In a world where cheering for unemployment feels as wrong as anchovies on pizza, history has a twisted way of saying, "You want lower rates? Well, it's gonna cost you - jobs!" And in today's episode of 'As the Economy Turns', we've been handed yet another serving of that 'bad news casserole' we've developed a taste for.

Let's digest the mortgage consequences...

Congrats to every financially stable borrower who got a 5-year fixed this month – you are philanthropists who generously donated to your lender's “We Love Your Money” foundation. And be sure to attend the next meeting of the "I Didn't Do the Math" club. It's held regularly at the "Shoulda Got Better Advice" café.

A Department of Finance official confirmed on Friday that the six Canadian Mortgage Charter (CMC) provisions are expectations (she called them "rules") but most won't be regulations.

The official wouldn't commit to saying banks had to follow all six rules, but they are "expected" to.

"This is the government putting in black and white in a fiscal document what Canadians should expect when they are up for renewal," the official said, speaking on background. "And if they feel their banks are not holding up their end of the bargain, there are places they can turn to, like the FCAC."

You hear it all the time, "Rental properties don't cash flow anymore," like it's some kind of universal truth.

But not every new rental is a money pit waiting to devour your wallet.

For property investors who like to skate to where the puck is headed, it's about seeing opportunities where others see a closed door.

The Liberals served up their Fall Economic Statement (FES) yesterday and it's got multiple ramifications for mortgage borrowers and lenders. We've taken the liberty to grade our trusty rule makers on each of their mortgage-related moves.

The result? A smattering of A's - impressive. But then, as unexpected as finding cheese on a pizza, there's one glaring F.
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Out of the myriad of economic data, #CPI# is what matters most. And we made solid progress today. The question is, when will mortgage rates catch on?

What CPI did

Headline inflation, which usually hogs the spotlight, fell to 3.1% in October from 3.8% the prior month.

But the bigger star was the BoC's closely watched 3-month average core inflation measure. It dropped to 2.95%, the best reading since early 2021.

The cherry on top was the month-over-month change. BMO Economics notes that "in seasonally adjusted terms, prices fell 0.1%" in October. That's the first such decline since we all started hoarding toilet paper in 2020.

Mortgage interest cost and rent remain the main inflation drivers. The latter is more of a troublemaker than the former, given that rates should be on the downswing (infamous parting words).

"We expect headline inflation to fall to 2.0% by the third quarter of next year," said Stephen Brown from Capital Economics today. "With gasoline prices falling further in recent weeks, headline inflation is on track to drop below 3% this month."

It wasn't all a picnic in the park, however. Services inflation picked up, as did seasonally-adjusted inflation, excluding food and energy.

Canada's 5-year yield took the data in stride, falling just 3 bps on the day as of this writing. But it still managed to hit a low unseen since July.

Mortgage implications

Our leaders have been swiping the national credit card like it's Black Friday, and mortgagors are paying the price for their extravagant spending.

Someone finally quantified that price last week when a Scotiabank report concluded:

"We estimate that government consumption and pandemic transfers to households account for about 200 basis points of the 475 basis points increase in the Bank of Canada’s policy rate."

Let's say Scotia's estimate is even half right. That's a whopping $17,000 extra that families are shelling out on a 5-year term (based on average mortgage amounts, according to TransUnion).

As much as some of that spending was justified to save families and jobs, much of it was our federal and provincial leaders acting like teenagers with a new VISA. The spending taps remain wide open, with federal program spending estimated at ~16% of GDP, well above the ~13% long-term average. How much the Liberals rein in spending will partly influence how far rates fall in the next rate-cut cycle.

But what many don't realize is, the riskiest spending is out of our control.