The Bank of Canada's TTFC ("time to first cut") has now been pushed out to early Q2 2023. That comes on the heels of today's ugly U.S. PCE report which showed inflation accelerating—more on that below.
There are few better indicators of inflation anxiety than 2-year yields, which have soared in the last three weeks. The U.S. 2-year rose the equivalent of half a rate hike today. It's now threatening to break November's 15-year high. Canada's 2-year rose 7 bps in sympathy even though our inflation pressures are less pressing.