The Latest from RateLand

This is not the pattern we like to see in Canada's 5-year bond.

"Cup and handle" patterns like this tend to break out and follow through about two-thirds of the time.

If that happens here, it projects the yield rising to roughly 4.20%—calculated by flipping the "cup's" low point (~3.40%) above the breakout point. That still wouldn't be a new cycle high, but it's enough to kick fixed rates up by 25+ bps. It would also put our 5-year yield's 4.46% cycle high within reach.

Lord willing, and the creek don't rise, this time will mark the 1 in 3 times when this pattern fails. But one can't bet on it, which means mortgage shoppers can't take rate holds for granted.

For now, we're keeping our peepers on Middle East developments, and next week's retail sales and U.S. core PCE inflation, looking for a ray of sunshine.

Rates can't take many more positive economic headlines

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