This & That: June 1, 2023

New Amortization Simulator: The simulator has been updated to reflect the market's latest implied rate path. Download the new version here.
  • BoC meeting odds: The #OIS# market now implies a 33% chance of a BoC rate hike on June 7. Another 25 bps increase is almost fully priced for September 6. The market sees the first cut now in spring 2024, but that's eons away in bond time. If incoming data—especially unemployment—start coming in weaker, which is a high probability, cut timing would be pulled forward once again.
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