Variable Mortgage Melodrama: BoC Staff Projections Under the Microscope

Calling mortgage renewal risk a "hot topic" is like calling the Grand Canyon a nice ditch, quite an understatement. Mortgage renewal chatter is hitting a level of buzz we haven't seen in decades, as the Google Trends chart below documents.

Bank of Canada researchers piled on the mortgage renewal conversation last week with a staff research report that made headlines. But while it was good at scaring people about the magnitude of potential payment increases, it left many wondering what it might take to mitigate that risk. It was like a mystery novel that ends with "To be continued..."

To measure the true depths of the renewal abyss, we reached out to the BoC for clarity on its analysis. Here's what it revealed.