The conflicting forces acting on Canadian yields are as powerful as lunar tides. Tuesday’s rate action was a perfect example.

When a mortgage borrower comes up for renewal, lenders don't leave that renewal to chance. More than ever, it's a chess match with lenders using cutting-edge tech to determine:

(A) How hard it'll be to retain that customer, and
(B) How sweet their offer should be.

That brings us to Equifax, Canada's biggest credit bureau. It recently rolled out a new product called Mortgage Attrition Predictor™. Its purpose is simple: help lenders keep borrowers from bolting to competitors.

We're about to break down how it works and explain why every lender and independent mortgage originator needs to consider similar tactics.

Canada’s 5-year yield, fresh off a two-month breakout, eased back on Monday. Here’s why it lost some steam...

Rate markets care as much about what people think inflation will do as what inflation is actually doing. This explains the fervent wait for the Bank of Canada's quarterly inflation outlook report.

Well, the Q2 numbers are finally out, and their influence on mortgage rates could be filed under “technically exists.”

With Friday serving up no important domestic data releases, Canada’s 5-year yield drifted with global currents like a rudderless dinghy, closing flat on the day.

Fortunately, encouraging signals on inflation expectations broke the monotony.

For the first time in more than two years, Canada's 2-year yield is trading above the overnight target rate.

This is a big deal for two reasons:

1. Two-year yields tend to sniff out Bank of Canada policy moves long before they happen.
2. Certain 2-year rate patterns have historically signalled changes to Canada's benchmark prime rate.

This month could trigger just such a pattern.

Here's what history tells us about what happens next...

It was a dull one in Canada's bond market on Thursday, but our rates still took cues from the economic pep south of the border.

Most lenders are still showing patience with fixed rates. So far, just 7 of 30 national lenders have boosted mortgage pricing following the recent yield spike.

That said, with swap spreads at a 14-month low—and 20 bps below the five-year average—that patience will wear thin if yields continue higher.

Lenders hoping to escape further spread compression watched bonds guided by soft data and political drama on Wednesday.