Wednesday's Central Bank Fest went exactly as scripted:

1. The Bank of Canada froze its overnight rate at 2.25%.
2. The Fed injected another 25 bps of stimulus into the system.
3. Both central banks took a cautious stance on future moves.

With those formalities done, markets can finally obsess over what happens to rates next.

The BoC held the line on rates this morning, and nobody had to feign astonishment. Heading into the decision, overnight swaps were pricing a 94% chance of no move, leaving the remaining 6% for the people who still bet on lottery tickets.

"Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months," and "Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter," the Bank said in its official statement, adding that underlying inflation "is still around 2.5%."
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The BoC wrapped up its prepared remarks by stating, "The current policy rate is at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2%."

The market's reaction

Markets already (think they) know what we'll get from the BoC and Fed today. The suspense lies in what tone central bankers will take with their rate decisions.

We don't expect either of them to commit to much, with 2026 trade uncertainty still unresolved. But bond markets remain surprisingly bearish on each side of the border, with the 2-year especially concerning.

For mortgage brokers and direct-to-consumer lenders who:

(A) market online, and
(B) want more leads

...2026 could turn their marketing upside-down, more so than any year in history.

Starting next year:

• Answer engines (AEs) like ChatGPT, Gemini, and Perplexity will steal far more queries from traditional search engines.
• More AEs will officially launch ads on their unpaid platforms.
• Social media will leverage AI to target ads more accurately.
• Ad costs per click (CPC) could surge as plummeting organic search traffic drives alternative seekers.
• Most content that doesn't show up on AEs could see traffic shrivel.

This all has profound implications for brokers and lenders who've been used to marketing online the "old" way.

To counter what's about to upset marketing apple carts, here are four survive-and-thrive action plans for 2026.

Monday brought a light data docket but a heavy dose of central-bank anticipation. It also saw a slew of fixed-rate hike announcements from across the land.

Friday saw unemployment tumble by the steepest percentage since 2022.

Be it stimulus-driven, AI-driven, resource-driven, or whatever, Canada's labour market wasn't supposed to have this momentum.

Once the data hit the wires, Mr. Market didn’t blink. Traders promptly priced in 100 bps of rate hikes with the first one landing next fall. (Fortunately, they're spaced out over the next four years.)

If you've worked in this carnival long enough, however, you've seen this rerun before—rate-bottom talk amid high uncertainty. Here is what bears remembering for advisors and borrowers alike.

Sometimes, all it takes is one report to violently reset market expectations. Today, we witnessed just that.

Canada’s jobs report left Bay Street forecasts looking like a misprint. It was excellent data for growth fans, but rough news for low-rate fans.

U.S. labour stats showed unexpected vitality Thursday, as Canadian traders await proof of job life on this side of the border. StatCan's employment report is the last major data point until the BoC interest rate decision.

Per usual, we'll have full coverage of the mortgage impact later this morning, once markets have had a chance to overreact.