Yields took a gentle slide on Tuesday, heading into Wednesday's central bank doubleheader. The Bank of Canada bats first with its 9:45 a.m. announcement, with the Fed stepping up to the plate at 2:00 p.m. ET. Spoiler alert: rates shouldn't budge, but brace yourself for outlook twists hidden within their messaging.

Monday's bond trading was so tranquil that we thought our screen had frozen. Ahead of major economic announcements—of which there are many this week—you expect light trading, but this was monk-quiet.

That said, here's what pressured Canada's 5-year yield on Monday, and in which direction.

First National Financial, a non-bank powerhouse that's one of Canada's biggest broker lenders, plans to sell a controlling stake to private equity in a $2.9 billion deal.

The two groups signing the cheque are:

• Global alternative asset manager Brookfield Asset Management Ltd., which owns private mortgage insurer Sagen and developer Brookfield Residential, and
• Private equity firm Birch Hill Equity Partners Management Inc., which previously bought HomeEquity Bank.

If you’re a mortgage broker, this is capitalism giving you an expensive nod—the kind of news that underscores broker value.

Friday brought fresh trade anxiety when Trump casually floated the idea of ditching talks and slapping Canada with ongoing tariffs. But despite the threats sending a chill through Canadian markets, yields remain in an uptrend.

Equitable Bank has reportedly been sending out emails to a small number of 'B' customers, asking them to requalify at renewal. At least some of the borrowers in question have apparently never even defaulted.

This begs the glaring question: Why?

Here's what Equitable Bank told us about it.

Markets spent another day arguing whether trade chaos means higher prices, an economic slump, or both. Canada's 5-year yield took it all in and closed right on the fence.

Market share matters for mortgage brokers in ways that barely need explaining:

• Brokers, as a group, have higher public recognition and earning potential as their pie slice gets bigger.
• Lenders servicing brokers make more money.
• Mortgage shoppers become better informed as broker interactions grow. In turn, a more enlightened mortgage consumer is less likely to make costly financing mistakes.

All of this is why our industry tracks broker share like a blackjack player tracks a dealer's face card. The most consistent source of this data is Mortgage Professionals Canada (MPC). Its latest survey suggests almost 1 in 3 borrowers (32%) closed their mortgage with a mortgage broker in the past year.
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That's down from the all-time high of 34% in 2023.

One-third might not impress your dinner guests, but in a market with $655 billion of originations in 2024 (source: CMHC), every 1% swing is over $6 billion of loans.

(Side note: If you happen to be a fintech pitching “We just need 1% of the mortgage market!” on Shark Tank or Dragons’ Den, be prepared to be escorted out faster than someone trying to sell diet water. The last time we checked, the best of the best online brokers haven't even approached this number.)

For months now, bond investors have yearned for trade certainty. Well, now they're finally getting it—sort of.

What they're learning is that countries are being forced to pay hefty Trump tariffs, kind of like shakedown money to do business with the United States.

With some countries, it's entirely justified, and with others, it's closer to extortion. But regardless of where you stand, the bond market has serious reservations with the strategy, and that's a mortgage rate risk.