Late Wednesday, a U.S. trade court ruled several of Trump's tariffs unconstitutional. At first glance, this looks like a win for Canada.

The court slapped an injunction on most tariffs (more on that). However, the automotive, steel and aluminum duties survive, according to Capital Economics.

Before the mortgage world starts celebrating, however, this development raises more questions than a philosophy exam, namely:

It was a quiet Wednesday where Canadian yields floated with broader market trends rather than specific domestic events.

Here's what nudged rates, and in which direction:

Canada's mortgage market eagerly awaits the final verdict on whether regulators will replace the federal mortgage stress test (a.k.a., "MQR") with their new loan-to-income (LTI) test. On Tuesday, MLN got new intel on this from our banking gatekeepers.

The regulator told us:

The Finance Department and Bank of Canada better keep those foreigners happy.

That's the takeaway from a National Bank report that showed foreign investors now control ~36% of our federal debt. The long-term average is 23%.

Foreign investors bought a record $91 billion worth of Canadian IOUs (bonds and Treasury bills) in the 12 months ending March 31, 2025. That's nearly 60% of the new debt churned out during that period. And it's a good thing they were bidding because Ottawa is set to amass a colossal pile of fresh #GoC# debt by March 31, 2026 (see chart below).
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For those with mortgages, it's like watching a suspense thriller where the climax is the interest rate. But what does this mean for borrowers?

Three things, among others:

It was a cautious day in the bond market, but trade vibes got suddenly more chipper.

Here's what moved Canada's 5-year yield, and in which direction:

For anyone picking a mortgage term based on market-projected forward rates and today's best offers *, floating looks about as appealing as a tax audit.

The implied upside (i.e., the probability of maximizing savings with a variable) is too limited.

As students of interest rates are aware, however, market-driven rate outlooks usually have an upward bias. For example, the chart below illustrates a typical pattern we often spot at this stage of the cycle.
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With U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day, Canada's 5-year bond yield charted an independent course on Monday.

Here's what moved our rates up and down to start the week.