With an economic calendar devoid of action, our five-year yield rose by a single lonely basis point, mostly out of boredom. But that alone is notable for one simple reason. Friday's flaming dumpster of a U.S. jobs report is getting no follow-through to the downside. Yields are holding up okay—so far.

Apart from a few minor Canadian trade headlines, Tuesday was pretty much an All-American show on the macro stage. The latest economic setlist now features an awkward medley of slowing growth and sticky inflation—sounds like a stagflation remix.

Here’s a full breakdown on that, and a look at how the latest news moved yields:

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America’s payrolls report just hosted a surprise seminar for macro analysts called “How to Faceplant in Public Forecasting.” Few saw this job grenade coming.

The miserably weak numbers—289,000 fewer jobs than expected, including revisions—sucker-punched bond bears and sent U.S. yields plummeting. Here's how the dreary data have rewritten the next chapter for mortgage rates.

A flurry of headlines jostled Canadian yields on Thursday, but the biggest news came after the market's close. Trump signed an order lifting his seat-of-the-pants tariff on Canadian imports from 25% to 35% (CUSMA goods are still exempted).

The President again pinned heavy fentanyl blame on Canada. That's despite overwhelming data that we're not the real problem. Apparently, data counts as fake news if it's inconvenient.

Trump also pointed fingers at Canada’s tariff retaliation, as if we were the ones who threw the first snowball.

Reuters reports that PM Carney tried to reach the President, but had no luck. Carney wrote on X that he was disappointed with the Donald. On the bright side, he noted that our CUSMA exception gives Canada "one of the lowest" effective tariff rates around.

That, of course, raises the multi-billion-dollar question: what fresh hell awaits when CUSMA expires next June?

Wednesday managed to disappoint borrowers and bond bulls equally. Market reactions to central bank outlooks essentially squashed hopes of a September easing by the BoC.

Fed policy decisions often ripple northward to Canada's mortgage market, but Wednesday's announcement didn't make many waves for rates.

What happens in the next few months, however, could be a different story. There's every indication that the Fed will remain on pause longer. That and more trade clarity could limit any downside for Canadian mortgage rates.

With this in mind, we broke down the Fed's announcement into eight essential takeaways for Canadian borrowers.

The Bank of Canada didn't budge on rates today, but it made its intentions more transparent. At this point, it's leaning towards keeping rates steady or gently lowering them later. Team Macklem has no plans to reach for the rate-hike lever.

The Bank's key statements, like the gem below, echo this stance clearly:

“If a weakening economy puts further downward pressure on inflation … there may be a need for a reduction in the policy interest rate.”
—BoC Statement, July 30, 2025

Despite that, Canadian yields are unchanged since the 9:45 a.m. ET announcement. What does this mean?