The first data casualty of the U.S. government shutdown is confirmed. The Labor Department announced it was cancelling the October jobs report.

Bond markets didn't like what they heard.

As you might have recently read, Scotiabank is calling for a rate hike in the back half of next year.

It's a spirited call, albeit a shot-in-the-dark one, given so many things could radically alter the BoC's path in 2026, including:

1. Article 34.6 — which effectively lets the U.S. pull out of CUSMA
   (an outside chance of a devastating blow to Canadian GDP)
2. The U.S. Supreme Court — which could rein in Trump's discretionary tariffs
   (that could, ironically, raise the odds of #1 above)
3. AI investment, fiscal spending, near-zero population growth, and geopolitical risk — all of which present a scatterplot of possible rate outcomes

At this point, it’s hard to treat any economist’s 12-month forecast as more than a rough sketch.

We're generally better off:

(A) leaning on the forward curve, where traders stake billions on future rate direction daily, and

(B) remembering one simple adage: Markets price efficiently. Lenders do not.

Canadian markets sighed with the passing of the federal budget. Now, perhaps PM Carney can turn more attention to housing markets, where starts came up way short.

It seems there's a growing crowd waiting for the trap door to fall out in Canadian real estate.

October defied those expectations, however, with benchmark prices edging 0.2% higher after falling in 8 of 9 previous months. It came on a 0.9% m/m bounce in sales, says CREA (with all data seasonally adjusted).

Canada’s CPI stole the spotlight Monday. It landed a tad warm, further suggesting that a BoC rate cut next month is off the table.

Markets are now bracing for a wave of post-shutdown U.S. data. With any luck, the job reports this week won't trigger any bond market meltdowns.

Headline inflation came in a shade above Bay Street's collective guesstimate for October, but it's still a welcome step down.

More importantly, the BoC's so-called "preferred indicator," average core inflation, is back below 3%, shaving off 15 bps from September.
​ ​ ​

Breaking it down

Yields closed in the green on Friday as hopes for a December Fed rate cut continue to dim.

On this side of the border, markets are nervously awaiting today's CPI data, looking for proof that average core inflation still understands the concept of "down."

Frictionless.

You probably know the term if you spend time around web design.

If it's new to you, and you aspire to a mortgage site that's not a digital relic, consider this required reading.

The fastest-growing stock brokerage in history has studied it obsessively.

In fact, Robinhood revolutionized trading thanks in large part to a frictionless user interface (UI).

That means Robinhood's app strips away almost every obstacle to customers doing what it wants them to do.

The company's design mastery has won it countless awards—and even sparked major controversy.

But while critics debate the ethics, nobody disputes the success.

That's key for tech-savvy brokers trying to build a better user experience (UX).

The same tactics Robinhood used to amass 27 million clients and a $120 billion business could help some mortgage pros close at least 20–30% more deals.