Talk about ironic timing.

Mortgage shoppers have stampeded toward variable mortgages lately. Yet, large prime rate discounts are disappearing faster than hors d'oeuvres at a banking conference.

In the last week alone, the average floating-rate spread below prime has shrunk by 5 bps (source: Canadian Mortgage Rate Survey). Signs point to further discount erosion ahead.

What's happening

"If pushed, our response will be the single largest trade blow the U.S. economy has ever endured." —Transport and Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand on Question Period

Like a ticking economic time bomb, we're potentially mere hours from Tariff-ageddon. If Trump stays true to his promise and taxes our imports right after his inauguration, Canada's employment, GDP and inflation charts could take some sharp, unpleasant turns.

For borrowers, mortgage pros and investors, one way to monitor the rate effects of Trump's tariff tyranny is to watch bond yields. They'll provide the most immediate sense of near-term rate direction as trade news leaks out of Washington this week.
​​