Monday's bond market was as tranquil as a yoga retreat, with traders mostly meditating ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision.

No one expects any surprises from the Fed this week, but Chair Powell's press conference could still send yields on a rollercoaster ride, depending on his choice of words.

Equally pivotal for Canada's destiny is PM Carney's Tuesday rendezvous with the Trade Warlock. If standard economic logic prevailed, the President would want to signal optimism. After all, despite Trump's "We don't need Canada" bluster, he supposedly likes Carney and knows that Canada is a vital resource supplier and the "biggest client" (Carney's words) of 40 of the 50 U.S. states.

However, Trump's fervent desire to repatriate industries means he'll likely leverage U.S. clout, sow uncertainty and issue threats to complicate negotiations.

In any case, here's what's moved Canada's 5-year yield on Monday, and in what direction.

U.S. yields rallied hard on Friday, and Canadian yields were hot on their heels.

These are some of the factors that fuelled the bond market theatrics, and their directional influence.

America's labour market still has a heartbeat, and that's supporting both U.S. and Canadian rates this morning.

Here are the vital signs from America's marquee economic release:

• April job growth: +177K (est. 138K | prior 185K)
• Unemployment: 4.2% (est. 4.2% | prior 4.2%)
• Average hourly earnings: +0.2% m/m (est. +0.3%) and 3.8% y/y (est. 3.9%)

Breaking it down

Manulife had a record-breaking year selling mortgage creditor insurance in 2024. That cemented the company as the biggest provider of such insurance in the land, followed by Canada Life.

So, what’s the magic behind Manulife’s creditor life insurance (CLI) win streak?

We put that question to Mario Cloutier, Head of Creditor Insurance at the company. He shed light on the factors at play and spelled out how Manulife's Mortgage Protection Plan (MPP) distinguishes itself from more common term life insurance.

Now, we get that insurance articles may not be people's go-to form of entertainment, but if you're a broker who sells this stuff, this is time well spent.

Yields drifted northward today as talk of trade breakthroughs kept rates afloat. Traders also braced for Friday's job data to either confirm resilience or yell “recession.”

Here's more of what got rates twitching on Thursday, and in which direction:

First National is a broker channel leader, making it a bellwether for trends in both single- and multi-family mortgage markets. Here are some swift takeaways from the company's Wednesday conference call:

Wednesday brought a deluge of macro data, and the latest numbers hint at a slipping economy in Q2 and Q3. The real cliffhanger for mortgage rates, however, is whether inflation will spike like the morning line at Tim Hortons.

Following today's fresh data, here's what's swaying yields, and in which direction.

The Fed's #1 inflation gauge looked decent on the surface, but it only tells us what happened before Trump's tariff onslaught.