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It feels counterintuitive, but simple arithmetic shows the #BoC#'s 2% promised land is within reach.

That's partly why the Bay Street brain trust is amping up calls for the first rate cut in June. Economists' resurgent confidence follows Canadian joblessness topping 6% and y/y CPI undershooting 3%.

But here's the main reason a summer rate cut isn't just pie in the sky.

So, here's a 'coincidence.' The day after we run a story on potential mortgage changes, JT plays coy when reporters ask him about 30-year insured amortizations:

“On mortgages, we will have more to say between now and the budget date on April 16, and perhaps we will save it for April 16.”—Justin Trudeau at a news conference Friday

Trudeau's poker face has a tell. And with any luck, he might have an ace up his sleeve: a pro-mortgage-growth ace.

The money's on 30-year amortizations

With votes on the line and its survival hanging in the balance, the Liberal government needs to start pulling rabbits out of hats.

And it doesn't take a Mensa member to figure out who the Liberals must win over. It's the young and restless twenty- and thirty-somethings—the people who've swapped their Liberal loyalty cards for a shot at affording a home where their roommate's name isn't Mom.

The latest Nanos poll is a horror show for the Libs. Older Gen-Zs and younger Millenials have deserted Team Trudeau in droves, with only 14% of Canadians aged 30 to 39 supporting this government. This political catastrophe is due mainly to unaffordable housing and living expenses, people's top two worries.

Billionaire Stephen Smith is like the Magnus Carlsen of the mortgage business—at the top of his game and always thinking multiple moves ahead.

Starting from zero (he declared bankruptcy in 1984), Smith capitalized on various industry trends to methodically build a mortgage empire. Today, his holdings include stakes in First National, Canada Guaranty, Home Trust, Equitable Bank, and Fairstone Financial.

We video-conferenced with Mr. Smith last week on a range of topics, including:

• How tighter mortgage regulations helped make him rich(er)
• Where he'd invest $20 million today
• Whether fintech lenders are a threat
• How his latest Home Trust - Fairstone deal could impact mortgage brokers
• How OSFI's loan-to-income (LTI) limit could change lending
• How much additional mortgage regulation we need
• Immigration's influence on housing
• Whether Canada will ever see a liquid non-prime securitization market
• What keeps him up at night.

So let's cut to the chase. In the exclusive video that follows, you'll get to know the humble grandmaster of Canadian mortgage entrepreneurship—possibly the most accomplished individual in our industry's history.
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For the first time since 2021, the share of Canadian firms expecting year-ahead inflation over 3% is less than the percentage expecting 2-3%, reports BMO (chart below). Raise a glass because that's a win.

But wait, hold the champagne. Joe Canadian's wallet isn't feeling it. According to BoC data, consumers see no inflation progress for the next year.