MLN NewsStream

Canada's rate market needed a win like this, and it got it. #Average core inflation# has delivered again. For the first time since the seemingly ancient days of mid-2021, it starts with a "2."

Today's welcomed report read as follows:

• Headline inflation: 2.9% y/y (est. 2.9%, prior 2.8%)
• Average core inflation: 2.95% (est. 3.1%, prior 3.15%)

This is what the Bank of Canada wanted last week when it said, "Governing Council is particularly watching the evolution of core inflation..." And believe us, the BoC hasn't just been watching core—they've been holding their collective breath, and now, they can partially exhale.

It's been one of the most action-packed weeks for Canadian housing policy in years. But before we unwrap that, let's talk about what's expected to be a volatile week for rates—following Iran's attack on Israel.

As MLN hinted last Thursday, insured 30-year amortizations are coming back from the dead after a 12-year absence—with a few strings attached.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland made the announcement today and the change takes effect August 1. Insured extended amortizations will be available to first-time buyers purchasing new construction only.

There's no word yet on what insurance premium surcharges will apply. Nor do we know what exactly constitutes "new construction." CMHC didn't have an answer when we asked them today, but we'd guess it's any unsold/never-occupied, pre-construction or existing, single- or multi-unit home.

A Finance Department official told MLN, "Before finalizing details around eligibility, mortgage insurers—including CMHC—need to have conversations with mortgage lenders ... So, in the near future, we will make sure younger Canadians know exactly what types of new builds qualify for the 30-year amortization."

How it impacts borrowers

The BoC left its target rate anchored at 5% this morning, but hold the phone—it just got upstaged — by U.S. inflation.

America's reaccelerating CPI data stole the show this morning, sending bond traders into a bearish frenzy.

The BoC left the beacon on for 2024 rate cuts, however, despite keeping its lips zipped on the U.S. inflation letdown. Here's what mortgage hunters need to know in case the rate waters get rough.