The Underestimated Risk of Cross-Border Inflation

If you're waiting for lower mortgage rates, here's a number to remember: 0.89.

That's the correlation between Canadian and American inflation this millennium.

At a time when U.S. GDP and payrolls are trouncing estimates, that number matters. Economic strength flows over the border—and the U.S. economy isn't just strong, at 4.2% estimated growth, it's accelerating. And it's doing so with multi-decade lows in unemployment.

In the back of Central bankers' minds, there's a growing fear that America missed its soft landing...because the economy aborted a landing altogether.

For those wondering how much longer U.S. inflation can keep falling in such an expansionary environment, you're not alone.

For those wondering whether U.S. activity could make Canadian inflation stickier than gum on a shoe—you're not alone either.

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