CPI: Back in the 2s ahead of schedule

Headline inflation was a welcome surprise this morning, landing at 2.8% versus the 3% consensus. Just 12 months ago, it was hitting horrifying 4-decade highs of 8.1%

Today's average core reading was less impressive, however. It eased only 1/10th to 3.8%. Until core descends into the BoC's 1-3% control range, it'll be restless nights for team Macklem at the BoC.

The good news:

  • Headline inflation typically leads core lower
  • CPI in the 2% range should take inflation expectations down another notch
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