Canadian bond traders are fidgeting like they’re waiting for a dentist appointment, awaiting any word from Washington on progress between Trump and Carney.
Their 11:30 a.m. ET faceoff is the start of high-stakes negotiations that could take Canada's bond yields on a rollercoaster ride.
• Trump just said he has "a lot of respect" for Carney and wants "to be friends" with Canada. "We love Canada."
• Trump says he'd like it if his first trade deal were with Canada.
• Carney told the President in front of reporters that Canada will "never be for sale," and Trump seemed to take it well.
• Trump said he would not walk away from the USMCA trade deal and that it was a "great" deal. He wants to see "subtle changes" to it, however.
• "We always will" protect Canada, Trump pledged.
Carney will hold a press conference at 3:00 p.m. ET, and we'll have highlights.
Signs that Trump might ditch his unjustified 25% fentanyl tariffs on Canada would be a good start in the talks, but that decision may take days or weeks. Such upbeat news, once it comes, would likely take bond yields higher.
Barring that, "The worst of the trade conflict is expected to take place over the coming quarters," TD Economics said today, emphasizing the urgency of getting a deal done.
Here's what else is moving Canada's 5-year yield today, and which way the bond winds are blowing:
