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Today’s CPI Surprise Was Dovish, Or Was It?

December’s inflation bump caught forecasters off guard, but underlying inflation measures told a less coherent story. The prevailing interpretation leaned dovish, a conclusion that smells suspiciously of groupthink. As is our unfashionable but effective custom, we took a little more time to look at all the evidence before committing.

This Isn't Your Grandpa's Inflation. Or Is It?

💡Now available: A new rate simulator can be downloaded here. Metals are in a runaway bull market punctuated by silver, which just shattered a record, crossing $90 for the first time. Why is this news of any consequence for mortgages? Because this sort of move has a nasty habit of
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