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Today’s CPI Surprise Was Dovish, Or Was It?

December’s inflation bump caught forecasters off guard, but underlying inflation measures told a less coherent story.

The prevailing interpretation leaned dovish, a conclusion that smells suspiciously of groupthink.

As is our unfashionable but effective custom, we took a little more time to look at all the evidence before committing.

That analysis provides a fuller picture of how StatCan's CPI data could shift mortgage outcomes.


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